Less than three days after surviving an attempted assassination at a rally in Pennsylvania, former President Donald Trump announced that J.D. Vance, a U.S. Senator from Ohio, would be his running mate for the 2024 presidential election.
“After lengthy deliberation and thought, and considering the tremendous talents of many others, I have decided that the person best suited to assume the position of Vice President of the United States is Senator J.D. Vance of the Great State of Ohio,” Trump said in a post on Monday on his Truth Social network.
Hours later, Vance and Trump—who had a large bandage on his right ear after Saturday’s shooting—shook hands and sat next to each other during the Republican National Convention’s opening night program in Milwaukee.
Vance, age 39, who rocketed to fame as the author of the book (and ensuing movie) Hillbilly Elegy (Harper, 2016), is the third-youngest person nominated for vice president by a major party. A former critic of Trump who once privately compared him to Hitler, Vance now aligns with the former president on several key issues. He echoed Trump’s calls to cut aid to Ukraine, deport migrants, and increase tariffs on all imported goods.
Doubling Down on MAGA
Fordham experts said the pick is a bit unusual given Vance’s past criticism of Trump and the fact that he doesn’t bring “something different” to the ticket. Though it’s not surprising, they said, that Trump would aim to reinforce his brand of conservatism.
“Vance is very much a choice that underlines what Trump has been doing since the 2020 election, which is doubling down on the concept of MAGA as a replacement of traditional conservatism,” said Boris Heersink, Ph.D., associate professor of political science.
“Historically, it has been common for presidential candidates to try to balance the ticket in terms of intraparty disagreements. Clearly, this choice isn’t doing that.”
Jacob Smith, Ph.D., assistant professor of political science, agrees that in Vance, Trump has chosen someone similar to himself—both in experience and policy.
“Like Trump, Vance is famous for something outside of politics and has little experience in elective office,” he said. “Sometimes, campaigns try to choose someone who adds something different, although other times, such as the Clinton/Gore campaign of 1992, a campaign will double down on a particular strength or message,” he said.
Help in Ohio?
Heersink has done research on the effect vice-presidential candidates have on elections, specifically within their home states. He said that while Vance may deliver Ohio votes, that is unlikely to have a big impact.
“Ohio has drifted so far to the Republican side that it is basically a guaranteed win for Trump regardless of who his running mate is, and additionally, Vance underperformed in Ohio in 2022 in comparison to Trump in 2020.”
Smith said Vance could perhaps “help a little bit in the Midwest, if he ends up being a strong choice, but research shows VP effects are minimal even in home states, much less regions.” He noted that a one or two-point additional performance in Ohio “could be important down-ballot though” for Ohio’s upcoming Senate and House contests.
Rhetoric Could Ramp Up
One area where Vance is expected to play a significant role is in the tone of the campaign, and there, Smith is not hopeful that he will lower the temperature of national rhetoric, as many have called for since Saturday’s attempted assasination. Within hours of the shooting, Vance blamed President Joe Biden on Twitter for the attack.
“My guess is that Trump had already decided on Vance before the shooting, or it was down to Vance and one or two others by then,” Smith said. “However, the effect of the pick will be to rachet up the temperature more.”
